PEANUT PERSPECTIVE MID-TERM REPORT – PART 1
This week the Peanuts Perspective will try and help coaches with their trading decisions by evaluating the players from each AFL team list that you must consider or avoid in the upcoming weeks based on their form in the first half of the year. We will be using the crystal ball to try and anticipate form slumps and players on the verge of being special.
A few quick trading rules to consider:
1) No Anchovy Deals: This means no sideways deals. You need to be in the market for premiums. If you can’t afford the premium, then downgrade a player make cash and then buy the premium. Right now, there are no players representing value at the $200k mark. These players are at that price for a reason. Rookies who have risen to this value will give the same service as a rookie at $100k, so get the cheaper rookie and make the cash. Don’t buy a rookie once their price has gone up. There are plenty of rookie fish in the sea.
2) Keep Trades for Finals: The finals are played over the last few rounds of the season. Funny things happen often during this time of the season and you can trust no AFL coach. Top sides start resting gun players, crap sides go the youth policy or start to tank and good DT players start getting mysterious injuries. Who will forget Ross Lyon resting half his side against the Hawks in Tasmania last year. You need to have trades up your sleeve for that reason.
3) Avoid Burning Trades: At this time of the season, trades are so valuable that they need to be validated with strong reasoning. We like to put a price of at least $100k a trade. If you are making less money on a trade, then you are giving it up too cheaply. Try not to be too reactionary to one week suspensions or injuries and trade out those players. You should have the depth to cover the short term injuries/suspensions.
4) Avoid Depth Killers: What are depth killers? They are the downgrade rookies you bring into your side to free up some cash. A lot of fantasy coaches just try to find any rookie playing at the time, rather than ask themselves whether that rookie will be playing regular footy. If you have 6 players on your benches that are not playing, then you are in serious trouble and can expect doughnuts in the future. You should have as a minimum 6 players contributing from your bench. When a good rookie is in the system, trade for him then ... don’t wait until later.
Note: (DT/SC average)
ADELAIDE CROWS
Nothing really exciting happening here from the 14th ranked fantasy team ...
Surprise Packet: Armstrong looks like being a useful rookie for those who picked him up. His price has now well and truly gone up, so my rule is to look elsewhere for a rookie downgrade (be patient, there will be more). Neil Craig has made it very clear to all with his decision on Edwards that the Crows are ready for the changing of the guard. So look at new rookies coming through at the Crows.
Cheap Option: The guy I really like is Bock as a cheap defender. The Crows run every ball through him in the backline and he has posted a couple big scores in the past 3 weeks. Unfortunately, his groin tweak doesn’t look good. And my strong mail is that he will be gaining a tan next year at the new footy club which he is headed.
Stay Away: Thompson is to be avoided this year. He is lacking the midfield support and receiving the tight tag, which has stopped him getting out in spaces for uncontested marks.
BRISBANE LIONS
Golden Oldies: A few weeks ago I mentioned that Power was a bargain at his price. Since then he has averaged 101/90 and can still represent a cheap premium in the midfield for those can’t afford the cream. His partner in crime, Black has also put together similar numbers and presents another cheap midfield premium option. My preference is to avoid Black as he cops the hard tag each week, handballs way too much and is not durable on the injury front.
Now a Keeper? For those who still have Maguire in their backline ... he is becoming a massive headache. Until his recent injury, he had played 10 out of a possible 12 and scored consistently. I had him pencilled in as a keeper. His injury is now testing the depth of many backlines. If you can afford to keep him and I would look to upgrade/downgrade elsewhere as this guy could provide a useful emergency or even 7th player in the finals.
Cripple Alert: I received the phone call from a friend asking what he should do with Brown before he was finally rested. The answer then was simple. Keep him. At $300k/$400k you will not find another player who can hit the big scores like Brown. However, can you afford to keep him on your list when the likes of Rioli, Rockliff and Betts are consistently putting up numbers.
Risky Bet: For those with short memories, Brennan started the season on fire and looked like having his break-out season to “super premium”. Since then injuries and suspension have set him back. He is priced very cheaply and if you like to take a gamble could be the right person for your forward line problems. Strongly consider.
CARLTON BLUES
The fantasy footy rule with the Blue Baggers is easy ... get on them. They short kick more than any other side and their ball retention has improved. They also have one of the healthiest kick to handball ratios ... therefore it is no surprise they rank 2nd overall in fantasy points.
In Judd We Trust: Up to now, the only thing he couldn’t achieve in footy was a high DT average. This has been emphatically rectified this year. So what has contributed to his big improvement in scores? The answer is simple. Judd has changed his running patterns to enable him to take a lot more marks from short kicks, particularly the kick-outs. As a result, his uncontested marks have gone up. He has also benefited from a lot of the current AFL coaches preferring not to tag him and trying to play offensively off him. They have instead afforded the first tag to Murphy. After a couple of semi-quiet scores his BE is high at 170/150, which should see his price reduce under $400k/$550k which represents considerable value and he will benefit from the week’s break.
Then come a crop of blue chip premiums that are durable, consistent and rarely put a fantasy foot out of place.
Blue Chip Defenders: Scotland, Russell and Carrazzo are all fantasy guns. Personally my preference is Scotland and Russell. Ratten has made a point to congratulate Carrazzo when he sacrificed his own game to negate others. This is the role he prefers for Carrazzo. Also keep an eye on Bower’s progress.
Blue Chip Midfielders: Murphy and Gibbs are fantastic midfielders for your side. Their scores have the least standard deviation of any midfielders (ie. they don’t put in any shockers), they have rarely miss a game, they both spend a long time on ground and they can’t be tagged into low scores. With Bower coming back in the side, Ratten has finally returned Gibbs full time in the middle so expect considerable upside from him in the second half of the season. Simpson this year has joined them in the same tier of elite premium midfielder. The interesting midfielder at the Blues is Walker. Sure you will need an elder statesman from a Native American Tribe to cast a spell to reverse the youngster’s bad luck. However, make no mistake ... this kid is scoring well and the Blues run every footy possible through him. SC coaches please beware that he is an apple turnover special and has baked plenty of pastries the past 2 weeks, so preference here is DT.
Surprise Packet: Well he is not much of a surprise for me as I picked him, but Eddie Betts was always going to have an improved season with Fevola leaving the forward line. Can still put in the odd quiet game, but at his price an average of 88/89 represents great value (especially if you picked him up at his original price)
COLLINGWOOD PIES
Until a couple weeks ago, the Pies were flying. As a matter of fact, they were killing off their games early and enjoying the sort of junk time only afforded to Tigers games. Recently though, the Pies have become the hunted and their numbers have dropped. Please be mindful the Pies have a tough month coming up and you need to be careful that you are not just selecting the junk merchants.
Absolute Gun: Swan is a jet. Your midfield must consist of Swan and Ablett. They are the top tier of midfielders. A couple of quiet performances have made him cheap, but he has returned to his best the past month. Pendlebury and Ball are premium midfielders you should consider. Pendles rarely puts in a bad game so there are no real surprises with his form. Ball is the player that has caught many fantasy coaches out. He was an unknown quantity prior to the year starting and many coaches had to take a leap of faith when selecting him. Ball’s first few games would have tested that faith, but he now looks to have found his niche and is playing with real purpose and confidence. Hat’s off to those coaches who bought him at his initial reduced price tag.
Must Have Premium: Didak is the best valued forward right at this moment. If your side does not contain him, then you should be upgrading to him. And I have a feeling he will only get better. Don’t forget that he averaged 103/105 last year and he is not far off that form.
Surprise Packet: It’s taken 12 weeks to convince me to finally come around ... as much as it pains me to say so, Daisy should be a forward you consider. In his 4th year he has built a tank that is allowing him to gut run and get into spaces required for uncontested marks. He also is getting his fair share of the midfield rotations.
Avoid Like The Plague: My advice is to stay clear of Shaw if you are looking for an upgrade/straight swap option in the backline. Taken out of games way too easily and I prefer Bower, Hargraves or Grimes at a slightly higher price range. He will cost you in finals and you cant take those risks. Also avoid Cloke who is a flat track bully, Wellingham who has been found out, Jolly who is not at the level of other premium ruckmen. When thinking of Davis and Medhurst, don’t be seduced by their 2009 form and cheap price tag ... they are both carrying injuries that will last the season.
ESSENDON BOMBERS
Captain Courageous: The young Bombers recent success has come from their midfield resurgence. The have finally found the right mix to give Watson a hand in the middle. At the start of the year I felt the captaincy would sit well with Watson and improve his footy. His scores have gone up another notch now that Prismall, Winderlich and Stanton have found form again and relieved him from being gang-tagged (not to be confused with anything else). At his increased price range there are probably better midfielders out there like K Cornes, but Jobe remains a favourite fantasy footballer of mine.
Risky Business: Stanton has been a star this year, especially at the start of the year and in DT. However has he finally been figured out. He has struggled with the strong tag the past couple weeks and Knights is determined to let him fight the tag alone. Other teams will not afford him space anymore. If your financial situation is mirroring that of North Melbourne and you can not afford an expensive midfield support crew, Winderlich is a player who is priced very favourably and represents a lot of value. Remember that he averaged 94/97 last year and seems to have rediscovered that form.
He’s A Keeper: Hille should be one of the 3 ruck premiums you consider alongside Sandlilands and Cox. His ability to push up forward and kick goals will work in your favour. So you must hold him through his current injury.
Surprise Packet: The Gumbleton gamble has paid off for many coaches, however the time has come to upgrade/downgrade. The preference is to keep the Peterson, Hitchcock and Rockliff types who are harder to keep quiet.
For The Novices: Don’t be sucked in by the scores posted by Lovett-Murray ... stay way clear!!!
FREMANTLE DOCKERS
The Dockers provide one MUST player for every fantasy footy position.
Midfield Must-Have: There are 300,000 odd coaches in both DT & SC who have a massive man crush on Barlow. In a couple games he went from good rookie to include in your midfield, to good rookie to start on your bench, to rookie gone premium, to premium to keep for finals.
Ruck Must-Have: Sandilands has taken over the mantle as the gun fantasy ruckman. Please note that you will need to have a back-up for him in the second half of the season. He has played 91% of his possible game time and is starting to look a little tired. A game’s rest is imminent and let’s just hope the fitness staff can help him avoid fatigue related soft tissue injuries.
Forward Must-Have: Pavlich is another must in every team. There is some distance between Chapman and Pavlich, but there is also some distance between SuperPav and the rest. We could see the belief return to him during the Cats game. He will not disappoint. The fact that he can move into the midfield at anytime to boost his scores makes him a must-have!!!
Defender Must-Have: Duffield has continued from last year and provides one of the better premium defensive options. The Dockers look for him on every occasion coming out of the backline and he spreads better than most defenders. The other beauty about this guy is nobody tags him, something that often occurs with Shaw, Enright, Fisher, Gilbert, etc.
Rookie Watch: Keep your eye on Dockers rookies. Harvey is not afraid to blood youngsters and keep them in the side if they play well. This year has seen Barlow, Fyfe, Silvagni, Morabito, Pearce, Roberton and Van Berlo all blossom.
GEELONG CATS
The fantasy footy rules according to the Cats are very easy ... flood your side with them ... they are the number 1 ranked fantasy side.
Best Premiums In Town: If you want to continue sky-rocketing in your overall rankings or play a massive part in finals you must have the following Geelong players ...
Ablett, Bartel and Chapman, for reasons explained in prior Peanuts Perspective articles. They just score at ease and can never be tagged out of big scores.
Enright and Kelly should also be must have defenders. Both are afforded the freedom to run off their man unlike Mackie who is often given a job.
Stevie J has found his form from the past couple years. Still hasn’t got the massive scores of 2009, but I have the feeling he is saving them for the second half of the season. The J-Pod has moved into the keeper/must-have territory. Not only does he kick goals and take contested marks in the forward 50. He also floats out half forward to take plenty of uncontested marks on the wing and gets involved in the play.
Value Player: At $303k/$394k, Varcoe represents a great forward option for those coaches who do not have the money to splurge for top premium forwards. He averages 80/93 this year, but his form in the past 4 games has been even stronger. I have a feeling his confidence is on the way up and he could be ready to have a massive second half of the season.
It’s Time To Go: If you are still holding Josh Hunt ... what are you waiting for? Just downgrade him already. Any rookie can obtain the same score and help you pocket some money to use wisely elsewhere.
Stay tune shortly for Part 2 with the remaining teams ....
